How the Middle East Conflict Affects the War in Ukraine: Moscow Profits from the Crisis, the U.S. Must Be More Resolute

He believes that the new conflict does not necessarily weaken support for Kyiv, but it does change the dynamics of global security. One unexpected effect of the Middle East war, he explained, is greater recognition of Ukraine’s military experience, particularly in countering Iranian drones.

"The world now better understands how important Ukrainian technology is in fighting Iranian drones. These cheap drones are so accessible that it is often uneconomical to shoot them down with expensive American missiles", D'Anieri noted.

Ukraine, after years of defending against such attacks, has developed relatively inexpensive and effective solutions that it can now offer to U.S. allies in the Middle East.

He also pointed out that cooperation between Russia and Iran further complicates global security.

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"Russia has not hidden its support for Iran. Moscow openly backs Tehran in its conflict with the U.S. Because of this, American policy in the coming period may need to connect these two conflicts more clearly - the war in Ukraine and the crisis in the Middle East", D'Anieri said.

Can the U.S. Handle Two Major Conflicts?

Asked whether the U.S. can respond simultaneously to the war in Ukraine and escalation in the Middle East, D’Anieri said it is possible, but only with greater involvement from European allies. He observed that President Donald Trump’s administration is already adjusting its support for Ukraine.

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"European states are buying American weapons and then transferring them to Ukraine. This means Ukraine can continue fighting Russian aggression while American taxpayers bear a much smaller burden", he explained.

The key challenge, he added, is speeding up deliveries and making it easier for European states to purchase U.S. military equipment.

NATO Unity Under Pressure

Regarding NATO, D’Anieri assessed that despite differences in approaches to the Middle East war, Europe remains largely united in supporting Ukraine.

"There are two countries that are more cautious - Slovakia and Hungary. They are slowing down part of the financial aid to Ukraine. However, most of Europe remains fairly united in supporting Kyiv", he said.

He argued that the U.S. should take advantage of this unity to strengthen cooperation with European partners and with Ukraine itself, whose military technology is increasingly attracting Western interest.

Rising Oil Prices Benefit Russia

According to D’Anieri, Moscow is carefully watching developments in the Middle East and currently has direct economic benefits from the escalation.

"Russia is pleased with rising oil prices, which have now exceeded $100 per barrel. When the price was around $60, Russia had to sell oil at a steep discount. Now, with reduced global supply due to the Middle East conflict, Moscow’s revenues are growing significantly,” he explained.

These revenues directly help finance Russia’s war in Ukraine.

"It suits Russia for wars to continue both in the Middle East and in Europe. Higher oil prices mean more money for Russia’s war machine,” he stressed.

Consequences for Global Security

D'Anieri warned that if the Middle East conflict escalates further, the consequences would also be felt in Ukraine.

"In that case, Russia would have even more money, while Ukraine could be left with fewer resources. Moscow would continue supporting Iran while simultaneously waging war in Europe", he said.

Therefore, he emphasized, the U.S. and Europe must be more resolute in countering both Russian aggression in Ukraine and Russian support for Iran.

"It is in the interest of both America and Europe to respond strongly to Russia’s actions. This is exactly what President Trump calls a policy of peace through strength", D'Anieri concluded.

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