Bosnian State prosecutors move against Milorad Dodik amid rising tensions 

The decision marks a significant escalation in the ongoing power struggle between the central government and the leadership of the Serb-majority entity, further straining Bosnia’s fragile political balance.

Dodik, a longtime advocate for Republika Srpska’s greater autonomy, is under investigation for what prosecutors describe as an "attack on the constitutional order." His government recently introduced legislation that seeks to block Bosnia’s judiciary and security institutions from operating within Republika Srpska, a move widely seen as an attempt to undermine the country’s legal framework.

Jelena Miovcic, a spokesperson for Bosnia’s State Investigation and Protection Agency (SIPA), confirmed that the agency had been asked to assist in carrying out the arrests. However, it remains unclear whether authorities plan to detain Dodik or simply ensure his compliance with the legal summons.

Dodik’s standoff with the judiciary comes after he was sentenced to one year in prison for refusing to recognize the authority of Bosnia’s international peace envoy. While he has two weeks to appeal the verdict, he has instead doubled down on his defiance, continuing to push policies that directly challenge the state’s post-war structure.

Wider arrest orders and political backlash

Reports from Republika Srpska’s government suggest that state prosecutors have also ordered the arrests of Prime Minister Radovan Viskovic and regional parliament speaker Nenad Stevandic, both of whom, like Dodik, are accused of failing to comply with legal proceedings.

In a direct response to mounting legal pressure, Republika Srpska’s parliament convened on Wednesday to discuss the adoption of a new constitution. If approved, the move would effectively nullify reforms agreed upon in the decades since the Dayton Peace Agreement ended Bosnia’s bloody civil war in 1995.

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The leadership of Republika Srpska has dismissed the arrest orders as politically motivated. Stasa Kosarac, Bosnia’s foreign trade minister and a key member of Dodik’s ruling SNSD party, insisted that the state's institutions have no legitimacy in Republika Srpska.

"These unconstitutional institutions have no right to arrest President Dodik or the leadership of Srpska," Kosarac told the SRNA news agency. "This is nothing but an attack on our autonomy."

International reactions and military readiness

As tensions rise, the European Union’s peacekeeping force (EUFOR) has begun deploying additional troops to Bosnia to maintain security and prevent potential unrest.

Dodik has received strong backing from Russia, as well as from Serbia and Hungary, while Western powers continue to oppose his policies. The Russian government condemned the court ruling against him, calling it "a deliberate act of destabilization in the Balkans."

The United States, however, took a different stance. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Dodik's actions were eroding Bosnia’s stability and called for regional partners to take a stand.

"These moves undermine Bosnia’s institutions and threaten security in the region," Rubio stated. "We urge our partners to join us in resisting this dangerous and destabilizing behavior."

Dodik, who has long sought closer ties with former U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, has hoped for a shift in U.S. policy that would be more sympathetic to Republika Srpska’s separatist ambitions. However, recent statements from Washington suggest that the U.S. remains firmly against his agenda.

Warnings from the International Community

Christian Schmidt, Bosnia’s international peace envoy, has strongly criticized Republika Srpska’s attempts to rewrite its constitutional status. He warned that such efforts directly violate the Dayton Agreement, which was designed to maintain peace in the region.

"This is a direct challenge to Bosnia’s constitutional order and a dangerous step that threatens the stability of the country," Schmidt stated, urging Republika Srpska’s lawmakers to abandon the plan.

Bosnia remains divided into two autonomous regions; Republika Srpska and Federation, linked by a weak central government. Since the end of the war, international oversight has played a crucial role in preventing further conflict, but Dodik’s latest actions have reignited fears of political fragmentation.

As pressure mounts, Bosnia now stands at a critical juncture. The confrontation between state authorities and Republika Srpska’s leadership has the potential to reshape the country’s future, either reinforcing its fragile unity or pushing it closer to a dangerous breaking point.

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