International Security Expert: Serbia Does Not Need to Choose Sides, But Must Be Cautious in Cooperation with China

The topic was "Strategic Risks of Deepening Cooperation with China" and international security expert Matthew Kroenig emphasized that "risk minimization" should be the key approach in relations with China, highlighting that Serbia does not have to choose sides, but should be cautious when deepening cooperation with Beijing.

China is Serbia's largest trading partner. In an interview with Newsmax Balkans, Kroenig outlined three main reasons why trading with China may carry risks.

"First, if you become too dependent on trade with China, they can use it as a tool of coercion. We've seen them do this, for example, with South Korea. When South Korea considered deploying U.S. missile defense systems, China shut down South Korean department stores operating in China and restricted Chinese tourists from visiting South Korea as a form of economic pressure. So, if Serbia becomes too dependent, China could use that as leverage," said Kroenig.

Secondly, he stated, China’s investments in infrastructure are not always profitable.

"Countries that have benefited from such investments have sometimes regretted it. For example, Italy withdrew from the Belt and Road Initiative. We’ve seen infrastructure collapse in Sri Lanka, and I understand a similar issue occurred at a railway station here in Serbia. I'm sorry for that tragedy. We often see low environmental and human rights standards, leading to pollution and often corruption, where Chinese actors bribe officials for these projects," Kroenig noted.

He added that he would encourage Serbian partners to carefully evaluate whether Chinese investments are truly worthwhile.

"The third and final reason concerns sensitive areas such as military and technological cooperation... We know China uses technology to spread disinformation and to steal intelligence to bring back to China. I believe that, in such sensitive areas, it probably makes more sense to opt for a more trustworthy Western private company. Because in China, there is essentially no such thing as a truly private company. They are all extensions of the Chinese Communist Party," he explained.

Kroenig clarified that the risks primarily stem from opening up to economic coercion by China, low-quality investments that fail to deliver on promises, and security threats, as China is not a democracy based on Western rule of law but rather a dictatorship.

He also emphasized that China uses technology as a tool for surveillance and repression domestically.

When asked what advice he would offer to the Serbian government going forward, Kroenig outlined several points:

"First, consider diversifying trade relations. The less dependent you are on any one country, the less vulnerable you are to coercion from China. Second, when it comes to investments, the United States, Sweden, Israel, and many other countries have mechanisms to screen domestic investments. These systems assess foreign investments and determine whether they pose a potential security risk. My understanding is that Serbia currently lacks a formal investment screening system. Introducing such a framework could make sense. Sometimes the review board might conclude that a Chinese investment is beneficial. But in other cases, as is often the case in the U.S. and Sweden, they may decide that it doesn’t make sense for China to control a mine, a port, or whatever the asset might be," concluded the international security expert.

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